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A spatial hybrid approach for downscaling of extreme precipitation fields

机译:一种降低极端降水场降尺度的空间混合方法

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摘要

For a few decades, climate models are used to provide future scenarios of precipitation with increasingly higher spatial resolution. However, this resolution is not yet sufficient to describe efficiently what happens at local scale. Dynamical and statistical methods of downscaling have been developed and allow us to make the link between two levels of resolution and enable us to get values at a local scale based on large-scale information from global or regional climate models. Nevertheless, both the extreme behavior and the spatial structures are not well described by these downscaling methods. We propose a two-step methodology, called spatial hybrid downscaling (SHD), to solve this problem. The first step consists in applying a univariate (i.e., one-dimensional) statistical downscaling to link the high- and low-resolution variables at some given locations. Once this 1d-link is performed, a conditional simulation algorithm of max-stable processes adapted to the extremal t process enables us to get conditional distributions of extreme precipitation at any point of the region. An application is performed on precipitation data in the south of France where extreme (Cevenol) events have major impacts (e.g., floods). Different versions of the SHD approach are tested. Most of them show particularly good results regarding univariate and multivariate criteria and overcome classical downscaling techniques tested in comparison. Furthermore, these conclusions are robust to the choice of the 1d-link functions tested and to the choice of the conditioning points to drive the conditional local-scale simulations performed by the SHD approach.
机译:几十年来,气候模型被用于以更高的空间分辨率提供未来的降水情景。但是,该解决方案还不足以有效地描述在本地发生的情况。已经开发了降尺度的动态和统计方法,这些方法使我们能够在两个分辨率级别之间建立联系,并使我们能够基于来自全球或区域气候模型的大规模信息来获得本地规模的值。但是,这些降尺度方法并不能很好地描述极端行为和空间结构。我们提出了一种称为空间混合缩减(SHD)的两步方法来解决此问题。第一步包括应用单变量(即一维)统计缩减,以在某些给定位置链接高分辨率和低分辨率变量。一旦执行了该1d链接,就可以对适应于极值t过程的最大稳定过程进行条件仿真,从而使我们能够在该区域的任何一点上获得极端降水的条件分布。在法国南部发生的极端降雨(塞韦洛尔)事件(例如洪水)产生重大影响的降雨数据上进行了应用。测试了SHD方法的不同版本。它们中的大多数在单变量和多变量标准方面显示出特别好的结果,并且克服了经过比较测试的经典降尺度技术。此外,这些结论对于选择测试的1d链接函数和选择条件点是有力的,这些条件点可以驱动SHD方法执行的条件局部尺度模拟。

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